Undeniably, the greatest shakeup for the 2024 Presidential Election occurred just yesterday. The presumptive Democratic Party nominee and the incumbent President of the United States declared his intent to step aside on X/Twitter.

This outcome had been foreshadowed by President Biden's underperformance of expectations at the June 27th debate between himself and former President Trump. Not long after the debate ended, a panel of CNN political pundits expressed shock and floated the idea of President Biden dropping out of the race. Some of these concerns had even been expressed anonymously by Democratic Party insiders. This topic dominated mainstream news coverage for several days, yet it appeared to simmer with the occasional whispers ultimately exchanged and sparse articles being published.

However, the last week and a half of this election cycle has proven to hail many unprecedented firsts.

(Former President Trump with his fist in the air after the assassination attempt, photograph captured by Evan Vucci of AP News)

The assassination attempt on former President Trump at his July 13th Pennsylvania rally, in combination with President Biden's poor debate performance, has led to former President Trump reclaiming his lead in many polls. Former President Trump holds a commanding lead across the major polling aggregates: 538 gives him a 3.2% average lead nationally, Princeton Consortium's average is 3.8% for the former President, and the RealClearPolitics average has him ahead by 3.0%. It is imperative to remember that in the former President's last two Presidential bids, he struggled considerably in the polls against his Democratic rivals. Former President Trump's continued lead is a first in all of his Presidential bids.

It has come as little surprise that as former President Trump possesses a definitive lead, many top Democrats expressed concern about President Biden's chances to secure re-election this November. Former Speaker Pelosi is reported to have shown President Biden polling data that was incongruent with his campaign's expectations, going so far as to tell President Biden that he couldn't beat the former President come November.

Other prominent Democratic politicians, including Minority Leader Jeffries, Representative Schiff, and Majority Leader Schumer, had also urged the President to consider dropping out. The pressure likely became too much when it was alleged that even former President Obama, who has selectively engaged in Democratic politics since his second term ended in January 2017, stepped in to encourage President Biden to step aside.

The constant media pieces on Mr. Biden potentially stepping aside, prominent Democrats encouraging this prospect, and an Axios poll finding that 65% of Democrats wanted a new Presidential nominee all coalesced to bring pressure that yielded this outcome. This was likely the best outcome for President Biden, as the severe doubt in his ability to serve a second term from the electorate might have turned the election into a referendum on his age rather than the issues he has spent months campaigning on.

As Mr. Biden dropped out, the President and numerous other prominent Democratic politicians and affiliated organizations endorsed Vice President Harris.

(Then-Senator Kamala Harris taking the Vice Presidential oath of office in 2021, photograph captured by U.S. Air Force Senior Airman Kevin Tanenbaum)

At the time of this writing, it is almost certain that Vice President Harris will receive her party's nomination for President. Potential Democratic contenders who could significantly challenge Vice President Harris for the nomination, such as California Governor Newsom and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, have opted to endorse the Vice President. Other candidates have filed paperwork but do not nearly have the same institutional backing as Vice President Harris.

While a presumptive party's nominee dropping out so late is unprecedented, it wouldn't be the first time such a thing has happened in American history. In the 1968 Presidential Election, then-President Lyndon B. Johnson intended to run for re-election despite his deep unpopularity due to his handling of the Vietnam War. After a poor performance and decided loss in the New Hampshire primary to the anti-war Senator Eugene McCarthy, President Johnson stepped aside in favor of his Vice President, Hubert Humphrey. Vice President Humphrey had inherited most of President Johnson's delegates and built his own support base to secure the nomination, even though he hadn't won a party contest in any state.

This situation would be different in the present as the Democratic Party's bylaws and nomination process have substantially changed since 1968. Gone are the days of the smoke-filled room where party bosses ultimately decided the nominee. However, the past offers significant wisdom in knowing that Vice President Harris is the most likely Presidential nominee for the Democrats in these uncharted waters.

While it is exceptionally likely that Vice President Harris will become the party's Presidential nominee, her running mate is still to be determined.

(Compilation of considered running mates for Mrs. Harris, photograph produced by Khou 11)

Considering the fragile state of the race at present, Vice President Harris will need to gain significant ground in the predicted swing states for this election: Wisconsin (10 EVs), Michigan (15 EVs), Pennsylvania (19 EVs), Nevada (6 EVs), Arizona (11 EVs), and Georgia (16 EVs). Other states, such as North Carolina and New Hampshire, typically qualify as swing states, but their recent voting trends mean they can be more safely predicted than the prior six.

There are currently 77 electoral votes that would be in serious contention, and the following picture is an expected floor for both Vice President Harris and former President Trump.

(The expected floor for both Vice President Harris and former President Trump, photograph made in yamps.com)

One way that Presidential candidates typically gain ground in states and regions is through their Vice Presidential picks. Former President Trump likely selected Ohio Senator J.D. Vance to appeal to Rust Belt voters, among other reasons. Teamsters Union President Sean O'Brien praised Senator Vance for what he called pro-labor policies, though stopped short of endorsing the Trump-Vance ticket.

Vice President Harris must make a similar play if she desires to increase her odds of winning this November. The best way to ascertain Vice President Harris' potential picks are to evaluate her most likely pathways to victory.

Securing Pennsylvania and Michigan will be incredibly important for Vice President Harris. Outside of Nevada, these two swing states had the highest margins for President Biden in 2020. They also collectively represent 34 electoral votes, so Vice President Harris winning these states would increase her share to 260 electoral votes. Between Arizona and Wisconsin, winning either state would be enough to put Vice President Harris above the 269 EVs needed to become President.

(Vice President Harris' pathway to victory including Wisconsin, photograph made in yamps.com)
(Vice President Harris' pathway to victory including Arizona, photograph made in yamps.com)

While it is very much possible that Vice President Harris could have alternative routes involving Nevada and Georgia, these are states that appear further out of reach than Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Arizona. Georgia voted for President Biden by the smallest margin of any swing state in 2020. Winning Georgia would likely entail winning other states that would already guarantee victory for Vice President Harris. Nevada has demonstrated a rather strong swing toward the Republicans in polls, so winning the Silver State would likely result in a similar case to Georgia.

Given that Vice President Harris' best chances of winning the Presidency lie in the Rust Belt, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, and Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear would be top contenders as running mates. These governors are also decently popular in their home states, adding further credence to their viability as candidates.

If the Vice President wishes to take the more unorthodox route of winning through Arizona and address immigration, an issue Democrats have been struggling with in this election cycle, picking a prominent Democrat from a border state like Arizona could significantly help Vice President Harris. Arizona Senator Mark Kelly could help the Vice President on both the electoral and campaign fronts.

The selection of Governor Shapiro, Governor Whitmer, Governor Beshear, or Senator Kelly as a running mate is perhaps the most likely conclusion in the existing field of candidates. Other floated candidates don't have the same electoral benefits for Vice President Harris. The least likely candidate is certainly Governor Newsom as a Harris-Newsom ticket would forego any electoral votes won in California under the Twelfth Amendment.

Regardless of the outcome, this election is one of many firsts and will likely be among the closest in American history, no matter who the victor may be.